AUSTRALIA’s export earnings from the resources and energy sector are expected to jump to record levels in 2017-18.
Backed by higher iron ore and coal prices, along with rapidly growing LNG export volumes, earnings are forecast to reach $230 billion and earn a trillion dollars for Australia in the next five years.
The figures were released by the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science in its March 2018 Resources and Energy Quarterly.
“Export values will also benefit from the rally in coal prices due to Chinese output cuts and weather events in Australia,” the department’s chief economist Mark Cully said.
“Also propelling exports will growing iron ore export volumes, the recovery in oil prices and a ramp up in condensate exports, and the mini-rally in base metals prices.”
The Resources and Energy Quarterly includes an extended five-year forecast period, with projections for commodity prices, supply, consumption, and Australian production and exports.
“The five-year outlook suggests Australia’s commodity export values will stabilise for a time after 2017–18, remaining roughly constant for the subsequent four years before increasingly slightly in 2022–23,” Mr Cully said.
“Exports are projected to earn more than $1 trillion for the Australian economy over this period.”
By the turn of this decade, the investment cycle which ramped up in the late 2000s and peaked in 2012 will have bottomed out, and the heightened production which that investment gave rise to will have levelled off, Mr Cully said.
“This effectively marks the end of the mining boom,” he said.
“The legacy of the boom will continue to be reflected for many years to come in high production and export volumes, but future sources of growth will require new exploration and investment activity.”
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Matt Canavan said the figures demonstrated the resources sector was going from strength to strength.
“Australia’s resources and energy export volumes are projected to hold up near their current historical highs over the next five years and in that period earn more than a trillion dollars for Australia,” Minister Canavan said.
“We are seeing healthy growth in commodity prices, particularly iron ore and metallurgical coal, combined with growing export volumes, especially in LNG.
“Mining is crucial not only to Australia’s economy but also to growth and prosperity across our whole region. We are already the largest exporter of coal, bauxite and iron ore, and we could be the biggest LNG exporter as well by 2019.
“These commodities play an important role in helping our region to develop its critical infrastructure and build its prosperity.”